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Brent Crude Oil: Navigating Market Trends Amid Political Turbulence šŸŒšŸ“‰

Letā€™s take a closer look at Brent Crude Oil's performance over the past quarter, considering key market trends and political developments.


Political Influences:Ā šŸ—³ļøšŸŒ Recent statements by Donald Trump have put a spotlight on Brent Crude Oil. Trump has accused OPEC of manipulating oil prices to benefit Kamala Harrisā€™s presidential bid. Additionally, the current U.S. administration is considering releasing oil from strategic reserves, which could impact oil prices. Since the last sale in late 2022, the U.S. has added 43.25 million barrels to reserves, bringing the total to 374.4 million barrels as of July 19ā€”an increase of over 50 million barrels compared to the 2022 lows.


Brent vs. WTI Spread: šŸ’¹ The price spread between Brent Crude Oil and WTI Crude Oil has been tight, ranging between $4.50 and $3.50. Currently, it's at $3.67. Historically, during upward trends, this spread is closer to the upper limit, but itā€™s now at the lower end.


Technical Analysis: šŸ“Š


  • Weekly Chart Insights: šŸ“ˆ On the weekly chart, Brent Crude Oil is testing the limits of an ascending channel, ranging from $96.00 to $75.00, and is nearing the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at $75.20. šŸ“‰ If the price falls below this level, it could signal a continuation of the downward trend that began late last year.


  • Daily Chart Highlights: šŸ“‰ On the daily chart, Brent is forming an ā€œexpanding formationā€ pattern, approaching the early June low of $77.00. This pattern suggests a potential target at the support level of $64.00, near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $62.00. If the price bounces back near the late May high of $84.00, the downward trend might be delayed or reversed. Consider taking profits if the $62.00 target is reached.


  • H4 Chart Details: šŸ” On the H4 chart, the key level for potential sell transactions is at $75.20, aligning with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. A sell signal might appear soon. Breaking below this level could pave the way to the $62.00 target. Given the recent volatility of 1,120 points, reaching $62.00 might take around 49 trading sessions, though increased volatility could shorten this period to approximately 39 days.


Conclusion: šŸ“ Keep a close watch on both political and market developments, as these factors significantly influence Brent Crude Oil prices. Monitoring these technical indicators will be crucial for navigating upcoming trends.


šŸ”” As always, carefully evaluate all factors before making any investment decisions.




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